報(bào)告人：南京大學(xué) 姜正瑞 教授
時(shí)間：12月17日 上午10:00-11:30
會(huì)議號(hào)：騰訊會(huì)議159 894 820
內(nèi)容摘要：
In the presence of successive product generations, most consumers are repeat buyers, who may decide to purchase a future product generation before its release. Therefore, after a new product generation enters the market, its sales often exhibit a declining pattern, thus rendering traditional diffusion models unsuitable for characterizing consumers’ upgrade timing decisions. In this study, we propose an Exponential-Decay Proportional Hazard Model (Expo-Decay model) to predict consumers’ time to product upgrade. The Expo-Decay model is parsimonious, interpretable, and performs better than existing models. We apply the Expo-Decay model and three extensions to study consumers’ upgrade behaviors for a sports video game series. Empirical results reveal that consumers’ previous adoption and usage patterns can help predict their timing to upgrades. In particular, we find that consumers who have adopted the immediate past generation and those who play previous generations more often tend to upgrade earlier, whereas those who specialize in a small subset of game modes tend to upgrade later. Further, we find that complex extensions to the Expo-Decay model do not lead to better prediction performance than the baseline Expo-Decay model, while a time-variant extension that updates the values of covariates over time outperforms the baseline model with static data.
報(bào)告人簡(jiǎn)介：
姜正瑞教授是南京大學(xué)商學(xué)院營(yíng)銷(xiāo)與電子商務(wù)系教授，二級(jí)教授，博士生導(dǎo)師。在2019年加入南大之前，任美國(guó)愛(ài)荷華州立大學(xué)的信息系統(tǒng)與商業(yè)分析教授和托米講席教授。主要研究領(lǐng)域是商務(wù)智能與大數(shù)據(jù)分析，其研究特色是將計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)研究與管理學(xué)研究有效融合，在商業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)分析、機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)、決策支持和科技創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散等方向做出了重要貢獻(xiàn)，在國(guó)際頂級(jí)期刊如 Management Science , MIS Quarterly , Information Systems Research , IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 等發(fā)表十多篇論文。其研究成果還被應(yīng)用于企業(yè)、非盈利組織和政府的實(shí)踐，取得了客觀的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益?，F(xiàn)為國(guó)際頂尖期刊 Information Systems Research 的副主編和 Production and Operations Management 的高級(jí)主編；曾任另一頂級(jí)期刊 MIS Quarterly 的副主編，并獲得該刊2016年最佳副主編獎(jiǎng)。主持過(guò)信息系統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域多個(gè)國(guó)際性的學(xué)術(shù)會(huì)議。作為項(xiàng)目主持人曾收到國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金和美國(guó)國(guó)際開(kāi)發(fā)署的資助，在北美、中國(guó)和非洲從事過(guò)科研和知識(shí)傳播的工作。2019年被南京市委市政府授予“南京市高層次舉薦人才（A類(lèi)）”的榮譽(yù)稱(chēng)號(hào)。
